The current crisis between Israel and Hamas has severe ramifications on the broader region that directly undermine the United States’ interests. Ongoing, large demonstrations against the attack throughout the Middle East and the Muslim world consistently target both Israel and the United States. The longer that violence in Gaza continues the greater the damage to America's image, interests and relationships around the world. This outbreak of violence comes precisely at the moment when the U.S. should be working with its allies to stabilize conditions in Iraq and Afghanistan, curb escalation with Iran and ensure stability in Pakistan. Yet all four countries, along with many others, have seen mass protests not only against Israel, but against the United States. For example, demonstrations in Iran and Iraq included a sign saying “Down with the USA” and burning photos of George Bush. [1] And rallies and protests in Iraq and Afghanistan now bring the conflict squarely into arenas where American troops are actively deployed.
The crisis in Gaza undermines international efforts to address the root causes of terrorism. Since the alternatives to Hamas governance in Gaza – ongoing Israeli reoccupation of Gaza, re-imposition by force of Fatah rule or international/Arab forces taking over – all are either undesirable or unrealistic, possible outcomes of this new fighting include an even uglier and more radicalized insurgency within Gaza and the kind of anarchy and lawlessness in which Al Qaeda type groups thrive and could gain a foothold in Gaza. The current violence also further radicalizes the region, as people rally around radical Islamic groups and leaders such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in Iraq. Meanwhile, moderate regimes in Egypt, Jordan and other Arab states are coming under heavy criticism by their constituents.
Finally, it is certainly not out of the question that this conflict could at any moment become wider, particularly with the possibility of the opening of a second front on the Israeli border with southern Lebanon. The longer the violence continues and the closer Israel appears to defeating Hamas, the more pressure Hezbollah will be under to start sending its own rockets into Israel. The rockets fired on January 8 into northern Israel from Lebanon should serve as a further warning of this potential for this to become a two-front war or even a broader regional conflict.
1. “World rallies around Palestinians amid Gaza offensive.” CNN.com. December 29, 2008
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